NASA’s new OTPS report identifies cost-effective methods for orbital debris management, emphasizing direct risk and cost estimates over 30 years. Credit: SciTechDaily.com
A new data analysis suggests so NASA and its partners may have discovered more cost-effective ways to deal with the growing problem of orbital debris than previously thought.
NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy and Strategy has released a new report that provides agency leadership with new insight into how to measure the risks posed by orbital debris.
“Increasing activity in Earth’s orbit has brought us everything from faster ground communications to a better understanding of the changing climate,” said Charity Weeden, who leads NASA’s OTPS. “These burgeoning capabilities lead to a more crowded space environment. This study is part of NASA’s work to rapidly improve our understanding of this environment, as outlined in NASA’s recently released Space Sustainability Strategy, by applying an economic perspective to this critical issue.
The report, Cost-Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Mitigation, Tracking, and Removal, is Phase 2 of OTPS’ work to address the technical and economic uncertainties associated with orbital debris.
A simulation of orbital debris around Earth demonstrating the population of objects in the geosynchronous region. Credit: NASA ODPO
Progress from previous reports
The OTPS Phase 1 report, published in 2023, provided the initial information for policymakers seeking cost-benefit analyzes of orbital debris recovery measures, including site relocation, removal, or reuse. The new report improved the quality of assessments of the risks orbital debris poses to spacecraft. These new estimates cover everything from the largest debris in space to millimeter-sized fragments. The report also broadens the focus of OTPS teams to include actions that can mitigate the creation of new debris and track existing debris.
“This study allows us to begin to answer the question: What are the most cost-effective actions we can take to address the growing problem of orbital debris?” said NASA analyst Jericho Locke, lead author of the report. “By measuring everything in dollars, we can directly compare the shielding spacecraft to tracking smaller debris, or removing 50 large pieces of debris to removing 50,000 smaller ones.”
Innovative approaches to risk measurement
The new OTPS report differs from previous orbital debris studies in that it directly assesses the risk posed by space debris, rather than risk proxies such as the number of pieces of debris in orbit. In addition, it measures risks in dollars—modeling the costs operators would incur of maneuvering spacecraft to avoid debris, of handling close approaches, and of damage or loss due to impact with debris. The study simulated how the orbital debris environment would evolve over 30 years.
Evaluating cost-effective strategies
Overall, the study compared the cost-effectiveness of more than 10 different actions that could be taken to reduce the risk of orbital debris, such as shielding, tracking small debris, or removing large debris. Ultimately, the team hopes to assess the profitability of combinations of different actions, known as portfolios.
The report’s analysis reviews common-sense actions that the space community has historically considered to be cost-effective methods of maintaining space sustainability. For example, the report estimates that some debris removal methods may be just as valuable as debris mitigation. It also estimates that rapid deorbiting of defunct spacecraft is a cost-effective method of reducing risk. Such findings could provide new considerations for NASA leaders and the space community when approaching the problem of orbital debris.
Future plans and public access
OTPS plans to publicly release the research code used to produce the study. The research team plans to continue their work on understanding orbital debris and the different approaches to it, and will work to share their knowledge with stakeholders.
