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Apple hasn’t given consumers a strong reason to buy a refurbished iPhone in four years since it launched 5G connectivity with the iPhone 12 — a worrying trend for the tech giant’s core business. That could change this week.

The iPhone brought in more than half of the company’s total revenue last year, but sales growth has lagged as customers are slower to switch to new models. Longer upgrade cycles—the time between consumers’ purchases of new phones—are currently plaguing many device companies. But they have been particularly painful for Apple as it grapples with complex challenges that also include stiff competition in the key Chinese market and a landmark antitrust case.

Apple is expected to announce new AI features at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday, which could boost it products and bring Apple back into competition with much of the rest of the tech world that has already running full AI steam. And no product is more important to Apple than the iPhone.

New AI features that provide a compelling reason to upgrade when Apple releases the iPhone 16 in the fall could give the company a boost at a crucial time.

Here’s the thing: No matter how Monday goes, Apple isn’t losing its status as a tech powerhouse anytime soon. The company earned more than $200 billion from iPhone sales alone last year, its stock ( AAPL ) is up 9% over the past year, and it has a robust services business that helps balance out some of the seasonality of hardware sales.

But analysts say a rebound in iPhone sales is key to Apple’s continued growth.

“This can’t be another ‘Oh, we’re going to do something cool later.'” kind of presentation. They know that,” DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria told CNN ahead of WWDC. “For Apple stock to work, for the business to grow, we need to hear from them why we should buy the iPhone 16.”

Investors are also counting on Apple to prove it can hold its own in the highly competitive AI arms race at a time when many of its peers have a much more clearly articulated strategy for the next big wave of technological development.

“The moment is critical for Apple. Nvidia has just overtaken it as the second most valuable tech company after Microsoft,” which is also looking to compete more directly with Apple’s device business with new AI-powered PCs, eMarketer senior analyst Gajo Sevilla said in comment by email. “Any misstep by Apple at this point could cause it to lose traction as a technology leader.” ”

Apple has been incorporating AI into its products for years in small, often invisible ways that nonetheless make life easier for its fans. But now Apple is ready to unveil its most consumer-focused AI updates yet.

The company is expected to announce new generative AI capabilities for iOS on Monday that could be especially useful for Siri personal assistant. AI-powered Siri could potentially perform specific tasks such as recalling a photo taken years ago on the device or answering detailed questions about the weather, news or trivia. Over time, it can learn a user’s preferences and even personality and react accordingly.

Based on how competitors have already begun to integrate generative AI into their devices, Apple may introduce other tools, such as the ability to summarize or draft emails.

Historically, Apple has often not been the first to introduce new technology, but rather has been slower to release premium experiences. Now the iPhone giant is under pressure to wow people with features that go beyond what rivals like Samsung and Microsoft have already introduced to their smartphones and computers.

But beyond the features themselves, perhaps the biggest question at WWDC is which Apple device owners will be able to use them: whether the new AI tools will be available on older iPhones, or if they’ll only be functional on upcoming devices that will be released in the fall, perhaps due to the need for new powerful chips or faster processors?

The latter scenario—assuming the features are compelling—could spur the next big iPhone upgrade cycle and have ripple effects across the company.

Luria said boring new features or AI capabilities that are available to anyone with an older iPhone could send the company’s stock down to $160 per share. But the exciting new technology, which encourages users to upgrade in the fall, could push the shares to $240 each. (Apple shares closed the day below $197 on Friday.)

“That’s the key: If it’s compelling and not backwards compatible, Apple will have the first upgrade cycle in four years,” Luria said. “And that’s going to mean a lot for stocks because that was the last time they had a big jump.”