A month ago, Microsoft felt unstoppable. The company had a bold and daring vision for the future of Windows, and it looked like it was going to make it happen.
Skip ahead to what was supposed to be the big launch day for its Copilot+ computers, but that all changed. Instead of excitement and hype surrounding these Windows devices, the air is filled with caution regarding Copilot+’s two main calling cards: Arm and AI.
Copilot+ without AI?
Looking back now, it almost feels like the security and privacy concerns were destined to arise Microsoft’s flagship AI feature, Recall. It’s a universal search feature that accesses every app and website you’ve ever visited—all through natural language. As neat as it sounds, there’s something inherently unpleasant about the idea that your computer is aware of everything you do on it—even with the manual controls Microsoft used to have. Even without knowing how bad the security risk is, sometimes gut reactions are right.
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Things came to the surface when security and privacy experts began to show just how fragile Recall was. Apparently, accessing all the snapshots that Recall takes on your computer has been frighteningly easy. A week later, Microsoft was already backing away from its position by enabling Recall by default to opt-in. But it wasn’t enough.
Stealing everything you’ve ever typed or viewed on your own Windows PC is now possible with two lines of code—in the Copilot+ Recall disaster.
FAQ with me from questions online. https://t.co/Jq8BUJef24
— Kevin Beaumont (@GossiTheDog) May 31, 2024
On Thursday, Microsoft announced that Recall will not be available at launch on June 18. Big changes to the feature are coming, including “just-in-time” decryption for Recall snapshots that are protected by Windows Hello, ensuring they are “accessible only when the user authenticates.”
We’ll have to see how long it takes for Recall to be playable again as an update, but it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle. There are already security concerns and perceptions are set. Microsoft has a lot of work to do to rebuild trust, especially when skepticism around AI privacy and security is already high. To make matters worse, Apple just had its own suite of AI announcements that prioritized security and privacy in a way that felt armored by comparison. As a tangible expression of the rivalry, the perceived success of Apple’s approach to AI has sent its share price soaring, putting it behind Microsoft to once again be the world’s most valuable company.
But the real problem is that aside from Recall, these Copilot+ PCs don’t have many other high-profile AI features. The live translation is neat, as is the Cocreator Paint feature – but they won’t be selling PCs. What it can, however, is the performance and battery life promised by Qualcomm’s new Snapdragon X chips – if only they don’t face some issues of their own.
Qualcomm legal problems
Microsoft has partnered with Qualcomm for many years in its quest to move to Arm. Qualcomm was really the only player in the game, which likely made the reported exclusivity deal feel safe for Microsoft. But Qualcomm’s recent legal angst raises some potential concerns that could weigh heavily on Microsoft’s plans. Arm sued Qualcomm in 2022, work with Arm and it has since been acquired by Qualcomm. Nuvia continued to work on the chip design under Qualcomm’s direction, which will eventually be used for the company’s new Snapdragon X chips.
However, Arm claims that Nuvia’s license was revoked when the company was acquired. Given the amount of PCs Microsoft hopes to sell with these new chips, you can see why Arm might be interested in picking up this license.
I’m not a lawyer, so I won’t pretend to know how legitimate Arm’s argument is. All I know is that the dispute has been brewing for a year and a half without permission, and with the impending release of Copilot+ computers, the litigation between the two companies sounds like it’s at a peak. According to a recent Reuters report, this was a big topic of conversation at Computex 2024, although it was never spoken about publicly by the companies involved. If this goes the wrong way for Qualcomm, it could hold up the entire launch of Microsoft’s Copilot+ PCs.
I imagine the powers that be will find a way to fix things, especially with Microsoft stepping in, but this is another potential disruption to the rollout of Microsoft’s new fleet of laptops.
An uncertain future
Sitting through the initial Copilot+ briefings, I remember feeling quite impressed by the achievement. The amount of things that needed to be fixed in order for Microsoft to successfully land this plane seemed insurmountable. Switching to Arm while going all-in on AI seemed like asking for trouble. But right now I really felt like Microsoft nailed it.
Something had to happen, especially with such a dubious feature as Recall on the table.
For what it’s worth, I’m still rooting for Microsoft and Qualcomm to figure out these two issues. The result will be better laptops, and in the end, that’s what I care about.
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