We’ve enjoyed a number of celestial spectacles in recent years – from total solar eclipses to stunning auroras – and yet soon Earth will witness the cosmic event that will top them all.
In the next five years, we will be visited by asteroid 99942 Apophis, and it will come so close that we will be able to see it with the naked eye.
Indeed, the upcoming flyby is so special that the European Space Agency (ESA) is hailing it as “one of the rarest space events of our lifetime”.
“Scientists believe that an asteroid the size of Apophis comes this close to Earth only once every 5,000 to 10,000 years,” ESA added in a post on Twitter/X.
The uniqueness of this event is due to both the asteroid’s proximity to Earth and its impressive size.
The space rock is about 375 meters (1,230 feet) in diameter, making it a sizable rocket.
Images of Apophis taken at three wavelengths(ESAHerschel/PACS/MACH-11/MPE/B.Altieri (ESAC) and C. Kiss (Konkoly Observatory))
Apophis was first discovered in 2004, after which experts placed it at Level 2 on the Turin Impact Hazard Scale.
According to this index, a score of 0 means that the probability of an impact with our planet is more or less zero, while 10 means that the collision is “certain” and “capable of causing a global climate catastrophe that could threaten the future of civilization, while we know it, whether it affects land or ocean.”
So while Level 2 is low – designating objects that make a “somewhat close but not very unusual close pass” – it’s not low enough to rule out potential risks.
Indeed, observations made in December 2004 elevated the asteroid to Level 4 on the Turin scale, increasing the chance of it hitting Earth in 2029 to 1.6 percent.
And if one percent doesn’t sound too scary, just keep in mind that, according to NASA’s calculations, a one percent chance of collision means an object is still capable of causing “regional devastation.”
In fact, in the years that space agency professionals have spent searching for and observing near-Earth objects (NEOs), not a single object has surpassed level 4 on the Torino scale.
And its potential threat to Earth has even earned the asteroid Apophis the name in honor of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and disorder.
The good news is that NASA has since emphasized that “the new telescope observations will most likely lead to [Apophis’s] level 0 reassignment.’
And while we will see a number of close encounters with the asteroid in the coming years, collisions have been ruled out in 2029, 2036 and 2068.
“An impact in 2068 is no longer possible,” Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies said in a statement, adding: “Our calculations show no risk of an impact for at least the next 100 years. “
However, Apophis will come especially close in 2029, orbiting within 32,000 km (20,000 miles) of Earth’s surface – which is closer than some of our man-made moons.
It will be so close that it should be visible from the Eastern Hemisphere without the aid of a telescope or binoculars, because IFL Science notes.
During the approach, NASA plans to visit the asteroid using its OSIRIS APEX asteroid sampler.
“Our planet’s gravitational pull is expected to change the asteroid’s orbit, change how and how fast it spins on its axis, and possibly cause earthquakes or landslides that will alter its surface,” NASA said of the planned mission. “OSIRIS-APEX will allow Earth scientists to observe these changes.
“Additionally, the OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft will dive toward the surface of Apophis—a ‘rocky’ asteroid made of silicate (or rocky) material and a mixture of metallic nickel and iron—and fire its thrusters to pick up loose rocks and dust,” he continued.
“This maneuver will give scientists an opportunity to peer into the composition of material just below the asteroid’s surface.”
ESA also hopes to visit the asteroid, noting that studying the flyby will help us better prepare against potential future collisions with similar objects.
“Earth’s gravity will ‘stretch’ and ‘squeeze’ Apophis, triggering landslides and revealing much about the asteroid’s material, structure, density and cohesion,” the space agency said.
“This knowledge will help us protect the Earth in the future.”
Still, in this case, it’s nice to know that the asteroid isn’t a threat, just a rare and beautiful sight.
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