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There was a panel discussion at a space conference in Singapore 11 years ago that has since become legendary in some corners of the space industry for what it revealed about Europe’s attitude toward upstart SpaceX.

The panel included representatives from a handful of startups, including Europe-based Arianespace and American launch company SpaceX. At one point during the discussion, the host asked an Arianespace representative — its Southeast Asia sales chief Richard Bowles — how the institutional European company would respond to SpaceX’s promise of lower launch costs and reuse with the Falcon 9 rocket.

“What I’m finding in the market is that SpaceX seems to be mostly selling a dream, which is good. We all have to dream,” Bowles replied. “I think a $5 million or $15 million startup is a bit of a dream. Personally, I think reuse is a dream. How will I answer a dream? My answer to answering a dream is, first of all, you don’t wake people up.”

To be fair to Bowles, at the time of his remarks, SpaceX had only launched the Falcon 9 five times through mid-2013. But his leniency was still something to behold.

Later in the discussion, Bowles added that he doesn’t believe launching 100 times a year, something SpaceX is starting to talk about, is “realistic.” Then, in a moment of high paternalism, he turned to the SpaceX employee on the panel and said, “You shouldn’t present things that aren’t realistic.”

In response, Barry Matsumori, SpaceX’s senior vice president, calmly said he would let his company’s response come through its actions.

Actions speak louder than words

Eleven years later, SpaceX, of course is launched more than 100 times a year. The company’s internal cost to launch the Falcon 9 is significantly less than $20 million. And all of this is possible by reusing the rocket’s first stage and payload fairings, each of which has already proven its ability to fly 20 or more times.

One would think that in the decade since, European launch officials would have learned their lesson. After all, last year the continent had to resort to launching its prized Euclid space telescope on a Falcon 9 rocket. This year, with Europe’s new Ariane 6 rocket still not ready after countless delays, multiple Galileo satellites have been launched and will be launched with the Falcon 9 rocket.

Some officials have taken note. In an outspoken comment last year, European Space Agency chief Josef Aschbacher admitted the continent was facing an “acute” launch vehicle crisis amid Ariane 6 delays and the rise of SpaceX as a launch competitor. “SpaceX has undeniably changed the paradigm of the launch vehicle market as we know it,” Aschbacher wrote. “With the trusted reliability of Falcon 9 and the exciting prospects of Starship, SpaceX continues to redefine the world’s access to space, pushing the boundaries of possibility as they go.”

But it seems not everyone got the message.

Next month, the Ariane 6 rocket is finally set to make its debut. It will surely be a success. Europe has excellent technical capabilities in terms of launch. But from day one, the Ariane 6 launch vehicle will cost significantly more than the Falcon 9 rocket, which has similar capabilities and does not offer reusability. It will certainly meet Europe’s institutional needs. But it probably won’t shake up the market, nor realistically compete with a fully usable Falcon 9.

Who really needs to be woken up?

And what about Starship? If and when SpaceX can bring it to market, the next-generation rocket will offer a reusable booster with five times the lift capacity of the Ariane 6 rocket at half the cost or less. How can Europe hope to compete with this? The European Space Agency’s director of space transport Toni Tolker-Nielsen, who works for Aschbacher, it should be noted, said he was not worried.

“Honestly, I don’t think Starship is going to change the game or be a real competitor,” he said in an interview with Space News. “This huge launch vehicle is designed to fly humans to the moon and Mars. Ariana 6 is perfect for the job if you need to launch a four- or five-ton satellite. Starship will not destroy Ariana 6 at all.”

In a way, Tolker-Nielsen is right. Starship will not change the way Europe sends its small and medium-sized satellites into space. Built and launched in Europe, the Ariane 6 rocket will be the workhorse for the continent. Indeed, some European officials are going so far as to push for legislation requiring European satellites to be launched on European rockets.

But to say that Starship won’t be a game-changer is the same attitude that Bowles demonstrated a decade ago with his quips about not waking up deluded dreamers. In hindsight, it’s clear that the dreamers weren’t SpaceX or its customers. Rather, they were European officials who had lulled themselves into thinking that their dominance of commercial rollout would continue without innovation.

While they slept, these officials ignored the rise of reuse. They decided that the Ariane 6 rocket should look like its expendable predecessors, with solid rocket boosters. Meanwhile, since the rise of the Falcon 9, almost all new rocket designs have included a significant reusability component. It’s no longer just SpaceX founder Elon Musk who says companies must go for reusability or perish. Almost everyone is.

Maybe someone should wake up Tolker-Nielsen.