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Zdenek Sekanina, an astronomer at La Canada Flintridge in the US, reports what he describes as evidence of a possible breakup of comet Tsuchinshan before it orbits the sun. Sekanina specializes in the behavior of comets, analyzing them specifically to make predictions about whether they will break up or break up as they approach the sun.

He believes the comet will likely break up before it can be seen from Earth, and has published his research on arXiv prepress server.

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, more formally known as C/2023 A3, was first observed by astronomers at the XuYi Station of China’s Purple Mountain Observatory just last year. It was subsequently lost, but then found again by a team in South Africa. After that rediscovery, expectations are rising because its size and trajectory suggest it will be easily spotted during its close pass by Earth this October, perhaps appearing as bright as Jupiter in the night sky.

But the expected show is unlikely to happen, Sekanina suggests in his paper, because the comet is showing signs of disintegration before its arrival.

As comets travel closer to the sun, they begin to lose gas. At closer proximity, they begin to lose dust, which creates visible tails. Previous research has shown that the outgassing tends to push the comet forward, like a thruster, and may also slightly change its path and spin rate.

Measurements of this non-gravitational acceleration allow astronomers to predict the path the comet will take as it orbits the sun. It is also used to make estimates about brightness if it passes close enough to be seen from Earth.

In his observations, Sekanina found that the comet did not brighten as much as expected given its size, speed and rotation. And perhaps worse, it didn’t get any brighter as it got closer to the sun. He suggests that the only plausible reason is that it is now in an advanced stage of fragmentation. He suggests that the comet is likely to break up into pieces too small to be seen from Earth.

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