Apple does not appear to have increased iPhone 16 orders despite reports to the contrary, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Kuo cited recent earnings reports from Apple suppliers TSMC and Largan as evidence.
TSMC recently said it saw no increase in unit growth, while Largan said orders for high-end models in 2024 were similar to last year. Kuo believes that Apple’s iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024 are around 87 million units, down from the 91 million iPhone 15 units that Apple ordered in 2023.
Kuo said some suppliers may have been asked to increase production, but this may be related to “specific reasons within individual industries or components.”
He suggests that expectations that Apple Intelligence will drive iPhone 16 sales “may be too optimistic” since the feature is only available in US English.
The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally believed to be the reason for the increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in beta for US users in 2H24, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English. Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), expectations that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Apple Intelligence beta in 2H24 may be too optimistic.
Earlier this month, Bloomberg suggested that Apple is counting on iOS 18 AI features to increase iPhone shipments by 10 percent in 2024. Apple Intelligence requires iPhone 15 Pro or later, so customers with older iPhones will need to upgrade to iPhone 16 to get the technology.
Apple Intelligence includes a long list of new capabilities, including Writing Tools for proofreading, polishing and summarizing text, Image Playground for image generation, and Genmoji for creating custom emojis. Apple Intelligence will also be used to overhaul Siri, but the new Siri functionality isn’t scheduled to launch until 2025.
So far, Apple hasn’t made an AI deal for Chinese users, and Apple Intelligence won’t be coming to the European Union when iOS 18 launches either.
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